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Agree to Disagree

Obama's Victory -- Thad Williamson

You can't even begin to put one's arms around all the dimensions of a world-historic event such as the election of Barack Obama in 800 words, so I won't even try.

I'll settle for tackling a slightly narrower question: how did Obama pull this off?

First, you have to look at background conditions. Exit polls indicate that over 90 percent of voters think the economy is in a shambles, and over 60 percent regarded the economy as the top issue. Those numbers would be hard to overcome for any incumbent party. And, generally speaking Democratic candidates do better when voters are concerned more about pocketbook issues than about terrorism, war and national security.

Even if the campaign had focused more on national security, weariness with the war on Iraq and growing recognition that Afghanistan requires more attention helped neutralize the traditional Republican advantage on national security. As an antiwar progressive, I was frustrated at times in the campaign that Obama never challenged McCain's claim that the Iraq surge of 2007 "worked" in helping bring Iraq closer to a long-term political solution (for a thorough deconstruction of that claim, see here ).

But the Obama campaign calculated that he didn't have to, and that there was little to be gained by debating the specifics of events in Iraq. Instead, he kept the focus on broad strategy.

The bottom line then is, Obama ran at a time in which the economy is tanking, an unpopular war with no end in sight has been dragging on and the vast majority of citizens thought the country is headed in the wrong direction.

But it's not the case that those conditions made Obama's victory inevitable. We also have to look at the campaigns the candidates ran.

I wrote in this space in the spring that while McCain was the best, most electable candidate the Republicans could have nominated this year, he risked paying a price for moving to the right to placate the party's uninspired base. In September, I predicted that the presence of Sarah Palin on the ticket would be a net negative by Election Day.

I certainly don't get them all right, but both those assessments came true. McCain's inability to articulate an economic agenda more subtle or compelling than the right wing's cut taxes, government is bad mantras cost him severely in September and October. Joe the Plumber aside, most Americans struggling to make ends meet aren't worried about having to pay 39% instead of 36% tax if one day they hit the jackpot; on the flip side, Obama succeeded as the campaign went along in persuading more and more voters that they would benefit from his proposals.

Likewise, the Palin pick ended up frightening many independent voters. McCain has always had an appeal to a certain kind of independent voter, the kind who is generally pro-military and conservative-leaning, who likes the idea of a strong leader who is not bound to ideology. This is the kind of voter who may have supported the Iraq war initially but thought that Bush screwed it up, who may not be enthusiastic about liberal social programs but who was appalled by the government's response to Katrina, who is not much of a tree-hugger but who recognizes that global warming is a real problem.

That's the kind of voter McCain needed to dominate, but the rash pick of Palin turned many of those voters off. The idea of a completely unprepared neophyte lacking not only detailed policy knowledge but even a firm command of the basics (witness her bizarre comments about the First Amendment last week or her erroneous claims about vice-presidential power) becoming vice-president or president frightened independents inclined to give McCain a chance.

But while we can recount McCain's missteps all day long -- and some of the tell-all reporting emerging from inside the campaigns now that Election Day is over is already making for delicious reading -- McCain's main problem was the same one Hillary Clinton had in the primaries: he got hit by the political force of nature that is Barack Obama.

Obama constructed the most extensive grassroots organizing effort in the history of presidential politics, and convinced literally millions of volunteers and donors that the campaign belonged to them. This was a machine capable of reaching out to every Democratic and independent voters, registering thousands of new voters, and turning the vote out; and, of course, it was a machine capable of raising the money required to make all that happen and still do more traditional TV advertising.

Given the scale of the operation, the campaign was remarkably disciplined internally, with no panicking or in-fighting or embarrassing leaks. Holding all this together was Obama's own cool persona and temperament.

Consequently, Obama became the perfect Democratic candidate: one with substantial appeal to independents and those disaffected by politics, one capable of expanding the base by bringing in new participants and one capable of firing up the party base in ways not seen in decades. For the first time in a generation, Democratic voters felt not just that they were voting against the Republican bad guys, but for someone. That's why so many Richmond voters (79% of whom supported Obama) waited patiently in line Tuesday morning in the rain for two or three hours to cast their ballots.

It remains to be seen whether Barack Obama will prove to be a great president. He has already proven himself to be a brilliant presidential candidate, one who appealed to the best parts of the American political tradition, one who inspired hope in even hardened skeptics and one who demonstrated by force of example what an extraordinary country this is.

Reboot -- Norman Leahy

Some of my conservative friends are despondent.   They simply cannot believe the nation would hand the presidency to an untested, blank slate of a candidate and hope for the best.

I'm not so gloomy.   Defeat brings clarity, and the shellacking the GOP took on Tuesday ought to have awakened everyone to a few hard truths:

A campaign based upon hope and optimism generally wins, regardless of party. Campaigns that are litanies of criticism, or in McCain's case, driven by Drudge report headlines, will fail. If Republicans wish to regain their presidential mojo, they need to have a positive vision for the future. And a few specifics would be nice, too.



2. The GOP needs to clean house. Former GE CEO Jack Welch was on CNBC Wednesday morning making the point that Republicans need a new set of faces with a new set of ideas in front of the cameras rather than the tired old hacks they've been using for so very long. This is unquestionably true and one would have thought Republicans would have embraced this notion in 2006. They did not.  



3. And that means the GOP House leadership needs to resign. Boehner, Blunt, and yes, Eric Cantor , need to go and new blood needs to be brought to the fore. Conference chairman Adam Putnam has already said he won't seek a new term in the leadership, so at least someone is getting the message. In the Senate, Mitch McConnell wins accolades for being a deft operator who has derailed many of the more destructive Democratic proposals. But when he based his campaign on how much pork he brought back to Kentucky, he shows that he remains part of the problem and part of the past. Jim DeMint, or Tom Coburn, anyone?



3. The GOP campaign apparatus is broken. After the Kilgore and Allen debacles in Virginia, I said I never wanted to hear any praise of the "72 Hour Campaign" again. Regrettably, it returned this time. It doesn't work. It's time for a new approach, one that extends beyond three days. They could look at Howard Dean's example for guidance on how to build party infrastructure. Dean may be a bit touched, but he's no fool when it comes to organizing.



4. Welch also noted that every manager should study the Obama campaign as a lesson in how to take market share from your competitors. This is true. Republicans attempted to use the treasury to buy their way into people's hearts. But in the process, they sold out their base. If they want to gain market share, they first have to mend fences with their core "customers." If and when those relationships are restored, they can begin making inroads elsewhere.



5. Republicans and conservatives would be well advised to read Saul Alinsky's "Rules for Radicals." They may disagree with it, but they cannot succeed without understanding how the other side operates.  



6. Closer to home, Virginia Republicans have a choice to make: they can stake out bold positions on property rights protection, school choice, tax reform and transparency or they can start burnishing their resumes. Transparency, in particular, will be key as that is an issue which enjoys substantial cross-party support. If they allow the petty grievances of some members to derail increased transparency, they are truly beyond hope.

There are a lot more items on the "to do" list for the GOP. But these are items that need addressing and should be acted on without delay.

It will be very hard work and a lot of people will get their feelings hurt. No matter. The alternative is to recoil into permanent minority status. That may suit the temperament of some Republicans quite nicely.

But if they seek to regain majorities, then they have to be prepared to bruise a few egos along the way. Who is in charge of the GOP now?  

Certainly not the old crowd. Nor, for that matter, is Sarah Palin. While she made big waves on the campaign trail and numerous new supporters, she is not the future of the GOP, and certainly not of conservatism.

More seasoned, thoughtful standard-bearers must be sought out. Fortunately, there are a number, including South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal .

These are the kinds of leaders conservatives can feel good about because they have experience putting conservative ideas into action. And that's what's needed most right now: action.

Circular firing squads and back-biting can be cathartic. But they are also pointless. The nation remains center-right in its outlook. It also remains full of opportunity for those willing to work for it.

Let's get busy.