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The Wilder Factor

In the process of running for mayor of Richmond five men have been raising money and wooing endorsements for months. Along the way, there have also been efforts to push away from certain associations.

Endorsements have been even been declared ... then revoked.



At various mayoral forums in different parts of town Paul Goldman , Robert J. Grey, Jr ., Del. Dwight C. Jones , Councilman William J. "Bill" Pantele and Lawrence E. Williams, Jr . have all made remarks that were critical of the sitting mayor, L. Douglas Wilder .

Some have been more pointed and direct than others.



Not one to let such slights pass, Mayor Doug Wilder, a former state senator and governor, picked his time -- 16 days before Election Day -- to weigh in on Richmond's 2008 mayoral race. He picked his place by flexing the unlimited license he seems to have to opine on the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Commentary/OpEd pages.



In bold print Wilder was dismissive of those seeking to become just the second popularly-elected mayor of Richmond in 60 years; the sitting mayor announced that his would-be replacements "just don't make the grade."



In his Sunday piece Wilder alluded to just three of the candidates, those some would say are the most likely to win. It was easy enough to guess their identities. His chief complaint was that none of them have been praising him sufficiently for the good that's been done during his stormy term as the first new-style "strong mayor."



Four years ago, when Wilder carried all nine voting districts easily in wining a landslide victory, it would have been unthinkable that his endorsement today would not be coveted. Now, in a post-Fiasco Friday environment, it might even be seen as a kiss of death.



So, which candidate is the truest anti-Wilder?



Well, Goldman worked for him on political campaigns going back to 1985. Then Mayor Wilder gave him a job as a top adviser in late 2004. Wilder fired him in early 2006. But on Tuesday morning Goldman suddenly withdrew from the race to support Jones. 



In his 14 years in the House of Delegates, Jones has been closely associated with State Sen. Henry Marsh . Notably, it's no secret Marsh, a former mayor of Richmond (1977-82), has had a simmering feud with Wilder for too many years to remember.



While serving on City Council , Pantele has very publicly butted heads with Wilder lots of times. Occasionally, Wilder has used rather harsh words to characterize Pantele's motives.



From all appearances, Williams will not be much of a factor in this election. But the fifth man, no, make that the fourth man, Grey, could be. Grey is the guy who came into the race late, originally labeled by wags as Wilder's favorite.



After all, Wilder appointed Grey to chair his reorganization of the performing arts center's committee. Grey was among the Gang-of-26 letter-signers -- a fizzler of a plot, apparently designed to at least scare the school board into bending to Wilder's will.

Grey's opponents don't mind bringing that letter up at the forums.



Importantly, Grey has raised more money than his opponents, due in part to his fat cat connections, some of whom happily backed Wilder's election in 2004. But recently the always-courteous Grey has admitted the confrontational style of leadership Wilder has used at times has been counterproductive.



If Grey is currently running third in the race to Jones and Pantele, Grey might benefit from having a public fight with Wilder, his old Northside neighbor. That is, if Grey is really trying to jump on the bandwagon to cash in on the obvious anti-Wilder sentiment that's in the air.



The thing is, for Grey that strategy is tricky.



Maybe Grey would be better off running along beside the anti-Wilder bandwagon, as there are still plenty of people in town who like Doug Wilder, or at least can easily avert their eyes from his blunders. They will always like what he has said over the years, even if he hasn't always delivered.



How many voters in Richmond would opt to reelect the 77-year-old Doug Wilder today, if they could? Maybe 25 percent? How about 35 percent? More? Nobody knows. The biggest question is -- what are they going to do on Election Day?



With a Wilder endorsement unlikely to come, will his most ardent supporters stay at home? Or, since many of them will already be in the voting booth to express their choices for president, senator, etc., what if most of them decide at the last minute to go with one particular mayoral candidate?



No doubt, in that scenario Wilder backers could trump Goldman's withdrawal to push Jones over the top and end up being the deciding factor, anyway, because the anti-Wilder vote could split evenly between Jones and Pantele.



Thus, in spite of his recent criticism of Wilder, Grey might still have more appeal to Wilder loyalists than Jones or Pantele.   



What is certain is that unless one of the four remaining mayoral hopefuls wins in five of the nine districts, there will be a run-off in December, pitting the top two vote-getters in a match-up.



Public endorsements notwithstanding, the Wilder Factor is surely going to play a role in deciding who has the distinction of following the one and only Doug Wilder.