Oscar 2012 Predictions

The big night is finally here. The Academy Awards are airing on Sunday, Feb. 26 at 8:30 p.m. on ABC, or as I like to call it, Oscar Holy Night. If you’re looking for some guidance as you prepare for your office Oscar pool, you’ve come to the right place.

Because of a rule change requiring films to receive a certain number of first-place votes, the Best Picture field has only nine nominees rather than the 10 that were in the running the last two years.

If you’ve paid any attention to the Oscar race, you’ve heard about "The Artist." It's going to be winning. A lot.

The other films competing for Best Picture are the family drama "The Descendants"; the Sept. 11 tale "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"; the Deep South drama "The Help"; the romantic fantasy "Midnight in Paris"; the sports tale "Moneyball"; the family chronicle "The Tree of Life"; and the World War I epic "War Horse."

It's going to be a long night, it usually doesn’t end before midnight, and that's half the fun. Billy Crystal is hosting again and we already know it’s guaranteed to be a thousand times better than the James Franco and Anne Hathaway disaster of 2011.

There are bound to be some surprises, but that hasn't stopped me from trying to predict them, and here are our fearless predictions for what we can expect in the top categories on Sunday night.

Best Picture

The Nominees: "The Artist," "The Descendants," "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close," "The Help," "Hugo," "Midnight In Paris," "Moneyball," "The Tree of Life," "War Horse"

Prediction: "The Artist"

In last year's Best Picture matchup, the front-runner "The Social Network" maintained months of momentum before "The King Speech" took the lead in the final lap and won the throne. This year is the opposite. The early front-runner "The Descendants" got smacked down by a little silent engine that could and nothing can stop this train.

It’s not much of a contest: the cinema-obsessed "The Artist" is going to win and my only consolation will be if Uggie the Dog gets a special Oscar. I didn't care for "The Artist" but I think Uggie should get a Pulitzer Prize and everything else.

Martin Scorsese’s "Hugo," despite earning the most nominations of all, is going to sweep the technical categories but not here and "The Help," while popular with actors, does not have the support it needs from directors, editors or writers. It didn’t even earn nominations in any of those categories. I do think it would be stupendous if "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" won to see all the critics that hated it all go insane at once.

The only question seems to be whether or not the Academy will really go through with it and give a black-and-white silent film Hollywood's biggest honor in 2012. You can pretty much count on it.

Best Director

The Nominees: Woody Allen for "Midnight in Paris," Michel Hazanavicius for "The Artist," Terrence Malick for "The Tree of Life," Alexander Payne for "The Descendants" and Martin Scorsese for "Hugo"

Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

The Best Director race is a battle of cinematic nostalgia as both "The Artist" and "Hugo" pay tribute to the era of classic cinema.

Michel Hazanavicius is the favorite, for recreating the silent era in "The Artist." His greatest competition is from Martin Scorsese, who pulled off an upset at the Golden Globes and whose "Hugo" received the most total nominations.

However, when Mr. Hazanavicius triumphed at the Directors Guild, it cemented his win at the Oscars. The Directors Guild and the Academy almost always match up and are usually indicative of the Best Picture win too. Snooze. I've already resigned myself to it, "The Artist" sweep is happening.

Best Actor

The Nominees: Demian Bichir in "A Better Life," George Clooney in "The Descendants," Jean Dujardin in "The Artist," Gary Oldman in "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" and Brad Pitt in "Moneyball"

Prediction: Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"

This is probably the hardest major race to call. George Clooney had been the front runner for his grieving father in "The Descendants" until Jean Dujardin in an upset picked up the Screen Actors Guild Award last month.

Bear in mind the SAG Awards are voted upon by actors and the Academy’s actors branch is its largest, so those votes are important. Mr. Clooney has his fans, but he already has an Oscar — for best supporting actor in "Syriana," for which he gained weight and looked disheveled.

Mr. Dujardin — and his little dog Uggie, the real star of "The Artist" — are the brightest stars of the season and are going to get all the way to the Oscar stage. Remember in 1998 when Roberto Benigni charmed the pants off of everyone won for "Life Is Beautiful?" Brace yourself, it's happening again this year.

Best Actress

The Nominees: Glenn Close in "Albert Nobbs," Viola Davis in "The Help," Rooney Mara in "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady" and Michelle Williams in "My Week With Marilyn"

Prediction: Viola Davis, "The Help"

In recent years, Oscar voters (mostly older males) have treated the best actress race like a beauty pageant, crowning a parade of beauties like Natalie Portman ("Black Swan"), Kate Winslet ("The Reader"), Nicole Kidman ("The Hours"), Julia Roberts ("Erin Brockovich), Gwyneth Paltrow ("Shakespeare in Love") and others.

Not this year. It’s a clash of the titans and it’s going to be a horse race right up until the end. This was supposed to be Meryl "Give me My Damn Oscar!" Streep's year. She gave another brilliant performance as Margaret Thatcher in "The Iron Lady" that added an eighth Golden Globe, a fifth New York critics' award, a second BAFTA Award and a record-breaking 17th Oscar nomination.

However, the tide turned after "The Iron Lady" got less than rave reviews, and Viola Davis became a sentimental favorite. The fact that Streep hasn't actually WON an Oscar since "Sophie's Choice" almost thirty years ago is certainly helping her, but I'm putting my money on Viola.

Ms. Davis is the beating heart and soul of "The Help" as a courageous maid in the Jim Crow era. There is huge support for "The Help", it won three Screen Actors Guild Awards, it is a beloved Best Picture nominee and that is going to make the difference.

The other nominees shouldn't even bother showing up. This race is so close but the huge standing ovation Davis received at the Screen Actors Guild Awards sealed the deal for me.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Kenneth Branagh in "My Week with Marilyn," Jonah Hill in "Moneyball," Nick Nolte in "Warrior," Christopher Plummer in "Beginners" and Max von Sydow in "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

Prediction: Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

Christopher Plummer has been the Oscar frontrunner since "Beginners" opened last summer and nothing has changed that. It helps that his incredibly touching performance in "Beginners" as a man coming out of the closet late in life is the best of his career - he's also a screen legend - a fact that is not going to go unnoticed.

He's already collected the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Award for his performance and on Sunday night, he’ll become the oldest acting winner in Oscar history. Expect a huge standing ovation for Captain von Trapp.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Berenice Bejo in "The Artist," Jessica Chastain in "The Help," Melissa McCarthy in "Bridesmaids," Janet McTeer in "Albert Nobbs" and Octavia Spencer in "The Help"

Prediction: Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

This category has a long history of upsets including Marisa Tomei, Mira Sorvino, Whoopi Goldberg and Anna Paquin. The Academy has a long tradition of rewarding broad, over-the-top comic performances in the supporting categories, from Kevin Kline in "A Fish Called Wanda" to Marisa Tomei in "My Cousin Vinny" to Renee Zellweger in "Cold Mountain." I think the last one was supposed to be serious though.

However, it's not happening this year. Take it to the bank, Octavia Spencer is going to win for her scene-stealing turn as Minnie in the summer smash "The Help."Not only does she have the most talked about performance of 2011, Spencer has mopped the floor with her competitors throughout the season and has already been honored by the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild and the British Film Academy.

If you heard her emotional speech at the Screen Actors Guild, be sure you have the Kleenex handy when her name is called.

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees: "The Artist," "Bridesmaids," "Margin Call," "Midnight in Paris" and "A Separation"

Prediction: "Midnight in Paris"

The rule of thumb in this category is that the Oscar generally goes to the most original script in the bunch.

That means that "Midnight in Paris," the only other Best Picture nominee in the category, gets the trophy and it’s well-deserved. Woody Allen's "Midnight in Paris" became his highest grossing film yet, and audiences, especially older ones, were delighted by the nostalgic storyline and incredibly witty banter.

The notoriously press-shy Oscar favorite previously won this award for 1977’s "Annie Hall" and 1986’s "Hannah and Her Sisters." The Academy probably feels like it’s time for him to win again, even though everyone know that he’s not going to show up to accept it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees: "The Descendants," "Hugo," "The Ides of March," "Moneyball" and "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

Prediction: "The Descendants"

I'm predicting that "The Descendants" will lose in the top categories and this is the best chance to honor the film and its writer-director, Alexander Payne since it isn't going to factor into the other categories.

It's a perfectly nice film that blends comedy and drama, the same formula that worked for Payne the last time he won the Oscar for 2004’s "Sideways."

However, "Moneyball" can’t be counted out here. Aaron Sorkin wowed audiences with a behind-the-scenes look at the creation of Facebook a year ago with "The Social Network," which won him the Oscar, but don't expect a repeat. I’m putting my money on "The Descendants."