No doubt, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell read the Public Policy Polling results that showed him with a 14-point lead on his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds. It was published earlier this week.
Although the McDonnell camp has to be happy with those numbers, it must also remember that opinion polls in August can be rather misleading. In 2006 former-U.S. Sen. George Allen was ahead of U.S. Sen. Jim Webb by 30 points in early August.
Then came Allen’s infamous Macaca Meltdown.
It’s often the case that political polls are more useful in identifying trends than they are at predicting outcomes, especially in the hot weather, months before an election.
Although, Virginia’s Democrats have won the last two gubernatorial contests and retaken both seats in the U.S. Senate, veteran Democrats didn’t need to look at that poll’s results to know they are trailing this time.
In spite of their recent successes, it will take a united party for Team Donkey to win this year. Which means that if Deeds runs too hard toward the center, courting Independents, he risks alienating the most liberal elements of his party.
Which may open the door for Deeds to run a negative campaign against McDonnell, to knock his favorable numbers down. Watch for how much Democrats dwell on McDonnell’s association with television evangelist Pat Robertson. McDonnell went to law school at Regent University, which was founded by Robertson.
McDonnell’s forces will probably try to paint Deeds as a classic liberal. That’s what Republicans do in any season, whether the label sticks or not.
Still, misleading or premature, summertime polls can have an impact on fundraising. So far McDonnell has raised significantly more money than Deeds. According to the Virginia Public Action Project, as of their July 15th filings, McDonnell had raised $10.6 million to $6.2 million for Deeds.
Deeds remembers all too well that when they were opponents for the AG job in 2005, McDonnell defeated him by 323 votes -- the narrowest margin ever in a statewide race in Virginia. In that campaign McDonnell spent $5.9 million; Deeds spent $3.1 million.
Speaking of trends, McDonnell is the seventh consecutive elected attorney general to run for governor of Virginia. Of the six who preceded him, two have won -- Gerald Baliles and Jim Gilmore. For what it’s worth, Marshall Coleman, Mary Sue Terry, Mark Earley and Jerry Kilgore failed to win the keys to the Governor’s Mansion.
Then, too, there’s this streak: Virginia’s last eight governors, going back to 1977, came from the opposite party of the president, who was elected the year before. Since a Democrat won the presidency last year, to keep Virginia’s contrarian streak alive a Republican has to be elected governor this year.
However, the trend that’s probably more worrisome to Deeds and his strategists is the lack of momentum that Gov. Tim Kaine is supplying. When Kaine defeated Jerry Kilgore in 2005, he had then-Gov. Mark Warner’s high approval ratings putting wind in his sails. But in his last year as governor Kaine is hardly enjoying the same sort of popularity.
Hard times, or not, Kaine has been less persuasive with the General Assembly than was his predecessor. As the commonwealth’s chief executive, Kaine hasn’t earned the reputation of a problem-solving, can-do guy that Warner did.
To make up for Kaine’s apparent weakness in popularity, Deeds will need other Democrats to lend their support. Sen. Jim Webb could be particularly helpful. If the GOP wins the game in November, it will surely be seen as a rebuke of both Kaine and President Barack Obama.
In spite of all the strategy, on November 3rd it may turn out that the economy and the debate over national healthcare simply overshadowed every word Deeds and McDonnell said on the campaign trail.
In that scenario the mood of the electorate would be the deciding factor. If folks are generally pleased with how the federal government is working to solve problems, it may help Deeds. After all, Democrats are in charge in D.C.
If the voters are getting angrier, a vote for change will help McDonnell.
One thing is for sure: Both parties will be reminding voters of the 323-vote margin from the last time Deeds and McDonnell faced off. When the leaves start to turn and the breezes get cooler, the drumbeat to get out the vote, from both parties, will be ubiquitous.
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